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The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley faced Democratic nominee Michael Franken.

Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Grassley, who turned 89 years old on September 17, 2022, ran for reelection to an eighth term.[1] With U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), on 3 January 2023 upon the departure of Patrick Leahy from the United States Senate Chuck Grassley became the most senior member in the Senate, and on 4 January 2023 he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress since 3 January 2023. Grassley was reelected, thereby becoming the first Republican to win an eighth Senate term.[2]

Despite his victory, this was Grassley's closest Senate race since he was first elected in 1980 and the first election since that time in which he did not crack 60% of the vote. Franken also beat Grassley in Linn, Story, and Polk counties, all of which Grassley had won in every election since 1986. In addition, this election was the first time that Grassley lost Black Hawk County.

Republican primary

State Senator Jim Carlin challenged Grassley in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

CandidateTotal receiptsCoverage ending
Chuck Grassley$6,881,288Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]
Jim Carlin$508,308Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]

Results

Results by county
  Grassley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanChuck Grassley (incumbent) 143,634 73.34%
RepublicanJim Carlin51,89126.50%
Write-in3120.16%
Total votes195,837 100.0%

Democratic primary

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer was the original frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with her campaign being backed by several prominent politicians and labor unions, as well as the influential political action committee EMILY's List.[25] However, retired vice-admiral Michael Franken managed to slowly overtake her as the perceived frontrunner, assisted by an effective campaign that highlighted his leadership credentials.[25]

Fundraising

CandidateTotal receiptsCoverage ending
Abby Finkenauer$3,740,881Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]
Michael Franken$2,863,882Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]
Glenn Hurst$129,618Coverage ending: 05/18/2022[8]

Endorsements

Abby Finkenauer
U.S. Representatives
State official
State legislators
Labor unions
Organizations
Glenn Hurst
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Abby
Finkenauer		Michael
Franken		Glenn
Hurst		Undecided
Change Research (D)[A]May 4–8, 2022866 (LV)± 4.0%40%42%4%14%
Change Research (D)[A]April 6–11, 2022416 (LV)± 6.3%53%26%7%14%
GBAO (D)[B]March 30 – April 3, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%64%15%6%15%

Results

Results by county
  Franken
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Finkenauer
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMichael Franken 86,527 55.17%
DemocraticAbby Finkenauer62,58139.90%
DemocraticGlenn Hurst7,5714.83%
Write-in1580.10%
Total votes156,837 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[40]Solid RNovember 7, 2022
Inside Elections[41]Solid RAugust 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[42]Safe RAugust 31, 2022
Politico[43]Likely ROctober 18, 2022
RCP[44]Likely ROctober 15, 2022
Fox News[45]Likely RAugust 22, 2022
DDHQ[46]Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538[47]Solid RSeptember 6, 2022
The Economist[48]Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Iowa debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanDemocratic
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Chuck GrassleyMichael Franken
1October 6, 2022Iowa PBSO. Kay HendersonYoutubePP

Endorsements

Chuck Grassley (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers
Organization
Michael Franken (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspaper and other media
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Chuck
Grassley (R)		Michael
Franken (D)		Undecided
[b]		Margin
FiveThirtyEightOctober 2 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202251.8%42.2%6.0%Grassley +9.6
270towinOctober 26 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202253.0%42.7%4.3%Grassley +10.3
Average52.4%42.5%5.1%Grassley +9.9
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Chuck
Grassley (R)		Michael
Franken (D)		OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co.October 31 – November 3, 2022801 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%4%[c]2%
Cygnal (R)[C]October 26–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%54%43%–3%
CiviqsOctober 22–25, 2022623 (LV)± 5.2%52%44%3%[d]2%
The Tarrance Group (R)[D]October 15–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.1%53%42%–4%
Change Research (D)[A]October 14–18, 20221,008 (LV)± 3.3%48%45%–6%
Selzer & Co.October 9–12, 2022620 (LV)± 3.9%46%43%8%[e]3%
Emerson CollegeOctober 2–4, 2022959 (LV)± 3.1%49%38%4%9%
Cygnal (R)[C]October 2–4, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%54%40%–6%
Change Research (D) Archived September 13, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[A]September 3–8, 20221,143 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%–8%
Cygnal (R)[C]July 13–14, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%52%43%–5%
Selzer & Co.July 10–13, 2022597 (LV)± 4.0%47%39%7%5%
Change Research (D)[A]June 30 – July 4, 20221,488 (LV)± 2.7%49%44%–7%
Change Research (D) Archived April 23, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[A]April 6–11, 20221,070 (LV)± 4.0%45%42%–13%
Hypothetical polling
Chuck Grassley vs. Abby Finkenauer
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Chuck
Grassley (R)		Abby
Finkenauer (D)		OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R)March 8–13, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%45%36%6%14%
Cygnal (R) Archived February 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine[C]February 20–22, 2022610 (LV)± 3.9%53%39%–8%
Data for Progress (D)December 2–13, 2021770 (LV)± 4.0%53%39%–8%
Cygnal (R)[C]October 18–19, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%55%39%–6%
Selzer & Co.September 12–15, 2021620 (LV)± 3.9%55%37%1%[f]7%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanChuck Grassley (incumbent) 681,501 56.01% -4.08%
DemocraticMichael Franken533,33043.84%+8.18%
Write-in1,8150.15%+0.04%
Total votes1,216,646 100% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grassley won all 4 congressional districts.[97]

DistrictGrassleyFrankenRepresentative
1st53%47%Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd55%45%Ashley Hinson
3rd51%48%Cindy Axne (117th Congress)
Zach Nunn (118th Congress)
4th66%34%Randy Feenstra

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; "Don't want to tell" with 1%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  6. ^ "Would not vote" (volunteered answer) with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by Franken's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Finkenauer's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. ^ Poll conducted for the NRSC.

References

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  97. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

External links

Official campaign websites
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa